Market Report – May 2022
Chilli / Capsicum
The majority of the crop has been harvested. The Post-harvest operations at farms continued in major chilly producing states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Pest & disease infestation led to a sharp drop in yield compared to the previous year leading to lower production. Chilly arrivals to markets have decreased considerably and are crop arrivals expected irregular till the end of April. The cold storage inventory in all the chilly growing regions is only filled up to 50-60 % as the arrivals are very less from both traders and farmers. Overall, the quality of the crop is poor compared to normal. Good quality arrivals to market yards dropped during the last few weeks. The availability of pesticide residues compliant crops is less this year. Prices remained firm during March. The export demand remained weak. Supply is expected to be tight, especially for good quality and pesticide residue compliant grades.
Forecast: The Chilly prices are expected to raise further in during June 2022.
Paprika harvesting is complete in India and arrivals to markets have decreased. Current arrivals are around 60000 – 70000 bags per market. The current quality of paprika RM has deteriorated in terms of color, value and size of chilies
Forecast: Paprika prices is currently stable but, we expect that the global scenarios will have an effect on the prices on a long run.
Global Scenarios effecting Paprika and Chilly Crops
- Increase in Fertilizer Costs
- Labor Costs
- Gasoline/Fuel price increase resulting in increase in transportation costs
- General Inflation
The initial forecast of production was high as Turmeric sowing increased by 10-15% across India. However, incessant and widespread rains during September to November led to crop damage almost by 15-20% in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.
New crop arrivals have started flowing into markets and are expected to peak during May. Prices were stable during April. Export demand remained weak. Domestic demand has started picking up over the last few weeks. India consumes more than 80% of the total turmeric production.
Forecast: Crop availability & Price are stable at the moment, for short term and long term requirements, we recommend to take cover with Agro-Mills.
The crop has been harvested across the growing regions. 2022 production is expected to be lower compared to last year due to lesser acreage. Prices have risen by 15-20% recently due to fewer arrivals and strong demand from domestic spice blends manufacturers. Domestic demand is expected to be better than the previous year.
Forecast: - Coriander prices will have an upward trend till the next crop season in February. Hence cover your next three months with Agro-Mills.
The crop has been harvested across the growing regions. 2022 production is expected to be lower compared to last year due to less acreage planted and a drop in yield. Prices have increased by 5-10% due to fewer arrivals and farmers holding stocks in anticipation of higher prices during the off-season.
Recommendations: - Cumin Prices will have an upward trend, Hence cover your next three months with Agro-Mills
Pepper harvesting in India is at its last phase and it is estimated to be over by the second half of May. Hence, pepper production in India during 2022 is estimated to be around 55000 – 60000 tons.
The latest reports on black pepper crop suggest that the 2022-year pepper production would be not more than 50000 – 60000 tons due to adverse weather conditions and widespread crop damages in the growing area. The next Crop harvesting is expected to start from July onwards.
Black pepper markets in Indonesia responded steady during April, even though the stocks were limited at domestic markets. Shipments were largely affected due to limited vessel connectivity and exorbitant freight increase.
White pepper light berry prices increased continuously due to less stocks and high domestic demand.
Pepper harvesting in Vietnam is almost 90% complete and the remaining is expected to be over by the Mid May. Total production is estimated to be around 2,00,000 tons.
Pepper arrivals have increased at domestic markets in Vietnam. Due to lack of aggressive coverages from China, Vietnam pepper prices remained at steady levels during March 2022. Light pepper availability was limited during the month and offers were less for the light berries.
Sri Lankan Scenario
Black Pepper markets in Sri Lanka a was steady during the month of April. The farmers and traders were selling their stocks in markets due to the financial crunch and not holding on to any inventory and hence the prices were steady. Prices for light pepper berries are expected to remain steady in the short and medium term.
Forecast: Black Pepper prices have already shown an increase of (20-25%). White Pepper prices will be on a price increase depending in demand. We recommend to take forward cover with Ago-Mills on Quarterly Basis. The price will only go up and the prices will be remaining at a higher side for the next couple of years.
Nutmeg & Mace
The Nutmeg harvesting in India would likely start during June and is expected to last till September 2022. Nutmeg crop is estimated to be short by 20 - 30 % according to farm level reports due to bad weather conditions. The overall crop production of Nutmeg has been stagnant in India recently. One reason behind it is the lack of new planting of the Nutmeg crop in the recent years which has affected the overall production since 2018.
Forecast: Nutmeg & Mace prices will be on a raise and will be on an increase during 2022, We recommend you to take long term cover with Agro-Mills
Fresh ginger harvesting is going on in all producing states and is expected to complete by Mid May. Dry ginger arrivals have also increased in the domestic markets. Dry ginger prices were steady at domestic markets especially in Shimoga which is the major market for dry ginger in India.
Forecast: Prices are expected to be steady during medium term, recommend to take long term cover with Agro-Mills.
Disclaimer: The content of this report is provided as general information only and is strictly the opinion and best of the knowledge of its authors. Information is provided without any warranty, expressed or implied. Information is gathered from sources which are believed to be authentic.