Market Report – March 2022
Chilli / Capsicum
Chilly harvesting have started in all major producing regions. The arrivals are limited ,The Chilly crop is not good with high moisture content noted. As per the reports from Guntur Red Chilly market, 50% of products are being reported as rain affected qualities. Due to unseasonal rainfall during November and December, Chilly quality reported damaged. We expect, supply of premium quality likely to be low in coming days and will support the prices.
Chilly arrivals from new season has started in all domestic markets. Current arrivals are mainly white chilies. Good quality chilly arrivals were limited however, prices remained at higher levels. Brokers and traders have now started collecting good chilies from markets at higher prices. They are putting the stocks in cold storages anticipating a price increase during in the long run. As per secondary reports good quality chilly arrivals will be less this season.
Recommendations: The prices have already gone up 20-30%. Will have an upward trend all thru the season. We recommend covering your requirements as soon as possible on a quarterly with Agro-Mills.
Paprika arrivals have started at domestic markets in Karnataka, mainly in Byadgi and Hubli. Current arrivals are mainly from rain affected areas hence the quality is not good as expected. Crop damage is reported from main areas like Bellary and Byadgi regions which would affect the availability and pricing. As per the market sources, supply of premium quality likely to be low in coming seasons and will support the prices. During the beginning of the season crop was in a good condition. But because of unexpected rain and thrips attack, the entire market dynamics have changed
Recommendations: Paprika prices have shown a price increase and expected to be at higher levels as the carry forward stocks are lesser and the new crop yield is lesser due to the less color once Paprika has been extracted. The prices are expected to go up further in the long-run.
Turmeric new crop arrivals have started in Nizamabad market. Buyers reported inactive for new crop supply due to high moisture. We expect buyers to be active in the spot market with the reduction in moisture level in the coming days. Turmeric crop for the year 2022 has been witnessing a lot of changes as and when weather kept changing. This year also saw a lot of unseasonal abnormal weather changes. Rains during the pre harvest time, cold weather extending due to which crop is getting delayed. Overall, at the moment, we are expecting the crop to be arriving a bit late.
Due to the extended winter time, drying of the material is a problem which will result in crop arrival delay by two weeks. Sowing was lower because farmers moved to other crops like cotton, soya and sugarcane because of good returns.
Maharashtra – The major producing belt of Maharashtra, Sangli district crop is looking good at the moment, with higher sowing compared to the previous crop and the quality of the crops also seems good. Though the yield is lower as compared to last year, the new growing areas will cover up for the crop volume. The cultivation has increased in other growing regions of Maharashtra as well.
Nizamabad and other areas of Telangana have faced huge challenge in retaining their crop. Very heavy rains and unseasonal rains damaged the crop in a major way and leading to disease. The crop faced a lot of growth issue and had maturity arrest. Though the season witnessed lower sowing by 15%, rains damaged the crop further.
Recommendations: Price are stable now but the crop shortages in Nizamabad areas will have an impact on the price later during the year, recommend to take quarterly covers
Price for Indian coriander is firm at higher price level. We are seeing strong retail demand for coriander and are expecting prices to be firm. Monsoon rains in growing regions have been lower and coriander price has increased by 5% in the last one month.
Recommendations: - Coriander prices will have an upward trend till the next crop season in February. Hence cover your next three months with Agro-Mills.
The major Cumin crop growing region Gujarat is expected to register a crop decline in the year 2022 following a noticeable drop in the area under cumin cultivation this season.
According to field survey and market information, cumin production in Gujarat is likely to drop down by 30-40% this year. However, Cumin is a weather-sensitive crop and a lot depends on climatic conditions over the next 15 to 30 days time. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky in current weeks. This year farmers turned to other crops, especially oil seeds as the mustard prices is 2 times higher than last year and cumin prices have not seen any changes in the previous years
Other Cumin growing regions of Rajasthan have also witnessed lower sowing.
- The current standing crop is under grain filling stage
- In the grain filing stage, the chances of pest attack (Aphid & Blight) possibility is high (Depends on the weather)
- So far, no aphid attack are seen which reduces the application of pesticides
- Due to the sudden climatic changes seeing blights currently.
- Canal irrigated areas of Barmer, Jalor, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur are affected. • Estimates 10-15% crop lose due to the above reasons.
Recommendations: - Cumin Prices will have an upward trend, Hence cover your next three months with Agro-Mills
Global Market Scenario
Black pepper harvesting have started in India and Vietnam. Pepper prices are continuously upward due to the lower arrivals. In the current season 2022, the pepper output is estimated to be lower in all the major producing countries. The major reason for the fall in production is due to erratic climatic conditions in the past years. The pepper prices were lower than the cost of production, and hence the farmers have not properly maintained the pepper vines. Adding on to the crisis, Shipping crisis due to the non-availability of containers and increased freight rates globally.
Harvest is in progress for both Kerala and Karnataka regions. Crop is expected to be lower by 25% which is 45,000 MT against the last year production of 60,000 MT. Market is picking up due to lower arrivals and limited offer. There has been an increase in the domestic demand as w inter season is considered peak for preparing pickles and sweets made of pepper in North Indian markets.
Harvesting is progressing in all the major producing regions. The arrivals are very limited because the farmers are not actively engaged in harvesting. As per the market information, currently the farmers are offering very few quantities of pepper which is sufficient to meet their lively hoods, as the farmers are seeing a bullish trend. As per the information from the sources, the harvesting will become active post to the TET holidays and arrivals will be in the peak by mid of March.
The current crop is estimated to be lower by 20% in the 2022 crop year and the pepper price shall continue to have good growth momentum in the current season. Due to the scarcity of labor, the green pepper picking has slowed down. In addition, the prices of fertilizers and pesticides have increased. Pepper growers have low margins as compared with coffee. After the Lunar New Year, the domestic market shall gradually become more active, and arrivals may pick up, traders and aggregators will participate more in to the trading activities
Major impacting factors
- The major producing belt of Dak Nong is affected by rain.
- Crop is estimated to be lower by 20% compared to the last year
- Lower Carry forward stock – 20,000 (40,000 in 2021)
- Increased demand from China
Sri Lankan Scenario
Kandy crop harvesting in Sri Lanka is almost complete. The interim crop was a very low crop with around 1500-2000 tons but the demand from India and Oleoresin companies was high and hence the prices also went up during the month. Black Pepper prices in Sri Lanka remained at higher levels due to good export demand from India. Light berries demand is expected to continue as availability is very less.
Recommendations: Black Pepper/White Pepper prices will be on an increase of about 20%. We recommend to take forward cover with Ago-Mills on Quarterly Basis. The price will only go up.
Disclaimer: The content of this report is provided as general information only and is strictly the opinion and best of the knowledge of its authors. Information is provided without any warranty, expressed or implied. Information is gathered from sources which are believed to be authentic.